The Actual State of Pharmaceutical R&D ～The Actual Condition of Pharmaceutical R&D: R&D Duration, Probability of Success, and R&D Costs Based on Questionnaire Surveys
Yosuke Takahashi (Senior Researcher, Pharmaceuticals and Industrial Policy Research Institute)
Hodai Okada (Senior Researcher, Pharmaceuticals and Industrial Policy Research Institute)
(No.82: Published in March, 2024)
Executive Summary
A questionnaire survey was conducted to analyze the actual status of R&D productivity in Japanese pharmaceutical companies.
Summary statistics were calculated for the three parameters of "R&D duration," "success probability," and "R&D cost, The factors influencing each parameter were analyzed, and the "expected R&D cost to bring one new drug to market" was estimated as an overall indicator.
The following figure outlines the "R&D period," "probability of success," and "R&D cost" during global development, The "Expected R&D cost to launch one new drug" was estimated to be 141.5 billion yen (in 2023), assuming a capital cost of 10%. This figure is based on the assumption of a 10% cost of capital. In this paper, we will discuss how this amount should be viewed, including factor analysis, comparison with past surveys, and sensitivity analysis. This paper discusses how this amount should be viewed from various perspectives, using methods such as factor analysis, comparison with past surveys, and sensitivity analysis.
Summary
A questionnaire survey was conducted with the objective of analyzing the R&D productivity in Japanese pharmaceutical companies. It was analyzed mainly from the three perspectives of "R&D period", "success rate", and "R&D cost", and then "total It was analyzed mainly from the three perspectives of "R&D period", "success rate", and "R&D cost", and then "total capitalized cost for one new drug approval" was estimated.
The following figure outlines the "R&D period", "success rate", and "R&D cost" in case of global development. Assuming a capital cost of 10%, the "total capitalized cost for one new drug approval" was estimated to be 141.5 billion yen (inflation Assuming a capital cost of 10%, the "total capitalized cost for one new drug approval" was estimated to be 14.15 billion yen (inflation adjusted 2023 JPY).